Scenarios for the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035 implementation were presented by the Ukrainian-Danish Energy Centre on 28 March 2018. The seminar was held in the framework of the project “Long-Term Energy Modelling and Forecasting in Ukraine: Scenarios for the Action Plan of Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035”. This project has been implemented as a part of the Environmentally Friendly Sustainable Energy initiative within the framework of the Energy Partnership Program between Ukraine and Denmark.

In her welcoming address, Olga Buslavets, General Director of the Energy Market Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine, Head of the Ukrainian-Danish Energy Centre noted: “The project was aimed at assisting the Ministry of Energy and other relevant stakeholders in the process of implementation of the new Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035 by providing analytical support based on modern modelling tools”.

The project team of representatives of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine, the Danish Energy Agency, the Ukrainian-Danish Energy Centre, the State Organisation Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the Danish Technical University updated the database and improved the structure of the TIMES-Ukraine model, worked out measures and scenarios for achieving the goals of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035 (ESU2035).

“I hope that the results of this project will be used for the elaboration of ESU2035 Action Plan. In addition, the simulation results could contribute to the preparation of the National Action Plans for Energy Efficiency and for Renewable Energy for the period beyond 2020”, stressed Olga Buslavets.

The conducted simulations resulted in determination of the Reference and a number of alternative scenarios covering the most probable variants of the development of the energy sector. Thus, Reference scenario considers the optimal development of the energy system of Ukraine under the goals of ESU2035. It is based on the targets specified in the strategy, including:

  • Energy efficiency of GDP;
  • Renewable share of TPES;
  • Minimum renewable share of electricity;
  • Addition of 1GW nuclear power in 2025.

A few sensitivity scenarios assess possible deviations from the targets or influence of alternative sets of technologies. Low Renewable Growth scenario assumes future low development of renewable energy as in UkrEnergo’s development pathways for hydro, wind and solar power generation. No New Nuclear in 2025 analyses the effects of a delay until at least 2030 of the new nuclear power generation capacity. In the scenario New Balancing Techs, new technologies that can provide balancing under increasing share of renewable generation are considered; while Green-Coal Paradox focuses on the effects of refurbishment of the existing coal-based thermal units to extend their lifetime and use them for balancing instead. Optimise Balancing provides insights into the effects a forecasting system (and a reduced balancing requirement) could have.

Additional scenarios put the goals of ESU2035 into a wider context (both national and international). National Strategies adds other national targets and measures from strategic documents (National transport strategy of Ukraine till 2030; National Strategy for Waste Management in Ukraine till 2030; Concept of realization of the state policy of heat supply; and Ukraine 2050 Low Emission Development Strategy) in addition to ESU2035. Low Carbon Society further expands the previous scenario by considering a path to an 80% GHG emission reduction for Ukraine in 2050. This scenario is closer to the climate mitigation policy adopted in the EU. Frozen Policy takes into account only those policies, measures and targets those were adopted until 2015 (i.e. no policies, measures and targets from ESU2035 and other strategic documents) and is provided for comparison purposes.

Presenting different scenarios and simulation results Dr. Alexander Dyachuk, Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, noted: “While using economic and mathematical methods and models in strategic planning and energy management we obtain not only quantitative but also qualitative assessments of decisions we made or planned. Non-use of the economically feasible potential of renewable energy after 2035 will boost the use of more expensive heat generation, which in turn, significantly increase the total cost and energy consumption in the system. Today's “green and coal paradox” is economically overcome by the use of modern balancing technologies and demand management tools, which in turn, will lead to a more intensive and reliable growth of renewable energy”.